--- title: Can AI Forecast the Future? canonical_url: https://www.omniscan.ai/blogs/can-ai-forecast-the-future type: article publisher: Omniscan date_published: '2026-02-17' last_updated: '2026-02-17' --- # Can AI Forecast the Future? Published by Omniscan on 17 February 2026. Original: https://www.omniscan.ai/blogs/can-ai-forecast-the-future **Our structured AI reasoning consistently outperformed prediction markets and expert pundits, sometimes by a significant margin.** At Omniscan AI, we've spent the past year developing and testing something ambitious: AI-driven forecasting that takes any strategic question and produces a calibrated, reasoned assessment of the likely outcomes based on available public evidence. The question we set out to answer was simple. Could structured AI reasoning actually outperform the collective wisdom of crowds and expert pundits on the big geopolitical, political and regulatory questions that shape strategic decision-making? The short answer: yes, and sometimes by a significant margin (though it depends on the subject). ## Benchmarking against the best available measure of collective judgement You may have heard of Polymarket. It's the world's largest prediction market, where hundreds of thousands of people stake real money on the outcomes of future events. It's widely considered one of the best measures of collective human judgement available. If the "wisdom of crowds" has a scoreboard, Polymarket is it. We benchmarked Omniscan AI against Polymarket across a range of geopolitical, political and regulatory questions in January and February 2026. We also tasked our AI with forecasting scenarios on several key topics relevant to the sectors we work in most closely. Here are the highlights. ## US strikes on Iran In mid-January, Polymarket priced a US strike on Iran at 71%. The crowd was caught up in heated rhetoric and media coverage. Our AI looked at reported diplomatic discussions, military logistics and historical base rates and put the probability at 16%. No strikes happened. That's a 55 percentage point accuracy advantage, and our AI outperformed all other forecasters we tracked. ## Who would Trump nominate as Fed Chair? Polymarket's crowd coalesced around Rick Rieder at 53%, driven by media speculation and name recognition. Our AI weighed policy alignment, prior relationships and the administration's stated priorities, and ranked Kevin Warsh as the most likely nominee. Warsh was nominated. Rieder wasn't. Once again, our AI beat the crowds and the pundits. ## Portugal's presidential run-off Portugal held its first presidential second round in 40 years, and rather than simply picking a winner, our AI assessed the likely margin of victory across seven outcome brackets. It identified "Seguro wins by 30–40%" as the most probable outcome, and that's exactly what happened. The correct bracket, from seven options, called the day before the vote. ## Where it gets interesting for policy professionals Not every strategic question has a clean yes/no resolution. Take the question of whether the UK will ban under-16s from social media this year. A simple poll would tell you very little. Our AI breaks this into four distinct pathways: a 25% chance the ban is legislated by end of 2026, a 45% chance the government pursues alternative measures instead, a 25% chance they intend to legislate but the timeline slips, and a 5% chance the attempt fails entirely. The headline? There's a 75% probability the ban doesn't happen this year, but for very different reasons, each with different implications for anyone advising on platform policy or child safety strategy. This is the kind of nuanced, scenario-based intelligence that prediction markets simply don't provide. ## Why this matters If you or your clients make strategic decisions that depend on where the world is heading (e.g. regulatory shifts, geopolitical risks, political appointments, policy timelines) then the quality of the probabilistic intelligence feeding those decisions matters enormously. Our research suggests that structured AI reasoning consistently outperforms crowd consensus and pundit commentary, particularly when both are driven by headlines, emotion and panic rather than evidence. Prediction markets are powerful aggregators of public sentiment, but sentiment is not the same as analysis. When the crowd is reacting to a news cycle, our AI is weighing base rates, logistics, institutional incentives and historical precedent. Beyond one-off forecasts, we also track how risks evolve over time. We've been monitoring the probability of Keir Starmer remaining Prime Minister since September 2025, for example, a figure that has dropped from 72% to 48% over that period. This kind of ongoing, structured monitoring provides a very different lens for scenario planning than occasional snapshots or media narratives. ## What you can do with this Clients on our platform can run forecasts on any question relevant to their work and receive structured, auditable assessments within minutes. Whether it's a regulatory timeline, a geopolitical scenario, a political appointment or a policy risk, we can provide calibrated intelligence that goes well beyond what prediction markets or traditional analyst commentary offer. If you'd like to explore how AI-driven forecasting could support your strategic analysis, scenario planning or client briefings, or if you'd simply like to throw a question at our forecasting engine and see what comes back, we'd love to hear from you. **Get in touch at** [**hello@omniscan.ai**](mailto:hello@omniscan.ai)**.** We're also happy to share our full Prediction Accuracy Analysis report, which includes the complete methodology and additional benchmarks across sectors. ## How to cite Omniscan, "Can AI Forecast the Future?", 17 February 2026. https://www.omniscan.ai/blogs/can-ai-forecast-the-future